🇺🇦 Ukrainian retaliatory strikes have effectively disrupted Russia’s main grain export route, with alternative ports currently able to handle only about 10% of the volume previously shipped through the Black Sea, Bloomberg reports. The disruption poses a significant problem for Russia. Some 46.3 million tons of grain passed through the Azov-Black Sea basin last season, accounting for about 80% of all Russian grain exports in 2025. Novorossiysk alone handled roughly 40% of exports before the rec

🇺🇦 Ukrainian retaliatory strikes have effectively disrupted Russia’s main grain export route, with alternative ports currently able to handle only about 10% of the volume previously shipped through the Black Sea, Bloomberg reports. The disruption poses a significant problem for Russia. Some 46.3 million tons of grain passed through the Azov-Black Sea basin last season, accounting for about 80% of all Russian grain exports in 2025. Novorossiysk alone handled roughly 40% of exports before the recent attacks. Following Ukrainian retaliatory strikes this summer, shipping through the Sea of Azov was halted, a terminal in Taman was damaged, and an August 12 attack on Novorossiysk shut down all three of its grain terminals. Russia temporarily lost about 70% of its export capacity, while grain and oil shipments through the Azov-Black Sea basin fell by more than half year-on-year in August. Moscow is now attempting to reroute exports through Ust-Luga, Vysotsk, the Caspian region, and the Far East. Between July and September, five such ports handled only 1.3 million tons of grain and oilseeds, compared with roughly 12 million tons of throughput capacity at the main Black Sea ports. Shipping grain to Egypt via the Baltic Sea is also about 30% to 35% more expensive. The disruption is already affecting Russian agricultural producers, with grain surpluses accumulating domestically. A prolonged export blockade could push farmers’ revenues down sharply enough to jeopardize winter wheat plantings. Russia remains the world’s largest wheat exporter, meaning a prolonged disruption could also affect global grain prices.